M. Joseph H. Chung est codirecteur de l’Observatoire de l’Asie de l’Est (OAE) et professeur au département des sciences économiques à l’UQAM.
President Moon Jae-in of South Korea has played a vital role of mediation for three Seoul-Pyongyang summits and two Washington-Pyongyang summits. Owing to these summits, on the Korean peninsula, there are no longer nuclear tests ; we see no more ICBM launching ; North Koreans are free now from the threats of annual joint military exercises ; the DMZ is now demilitarized.
But the world’s honest hope for a breakthrough at the Hanoi Kim-Trump died.
President Moon will meet Trump in Washington on the 11th of April. It will be a Mission Impossible.
It is hoped that God will be on his side.
All these summits have provided the hope for the possible beginning of the peace process. But, the sudden collapse of the second Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi has cast dark clouds over the horizon of the peace process. In fact, nobody seems to know what will happen now. However, we know that, to go any further with the peace process, the world needs once again the leadership of President Moon.
In this paper, I will tackle the following. First, I will examine the current state of the peace process, and then, I will discuss the possible range of Moon’s mediation activities. Third, I will evaluate the probability of success of Moon’s effort. Finally I will add a few words of summary.