The global financial crisis and the ‘great recession’ that followed had a significant impact on India’s growth trajectory. This is particularly true of the relative slowdown in services exports during this period as a result of which trade integration gets dominated by goods trade. It is also the case that the increase in oil prices and the continuing increase in the import of gold and silver had an impact on current account balances. The paper however argues that the oil trade – crude oil imports and petroleum and refinery product exports – overstates the extent of integration and masks important structural tendencies such as persistent deficits on manufacturing trade. Equally importantly neither (increase in oil and gold–silver imports) explain the sharp deceleration in fixed–investment growth nor the contraction in manufacturing output that characterise the slowdown. In our analysis, the centrality of private corporate investment and the manufacturing sector to the high–growth phase and the slowdown is explained by the patterns of integration and its impact on growth dynamics.
Vient de paraître : Notes du Prias # 4
Globalisation and the slowdown of the Indian Economy
de notre collègue Mritiunjoy Mohanty, 20 September 2015